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Brighton & Hove Albion
Mike Mcleod
 
Bristol City FC
Ellis Simpson
 
 
League Round 5
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION                     BRISTOL CITY FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Felix Blucher           8    1    9     Gk Titouan Raoul           6    2    8
Sw Nicolas  Pérez          8    1    9     Df Alejandro  Segura       8    2   10
Df Ethan Grand            10    0   10     Sw Matthew Webster         3    2    5
Df Raphaël Deshayes        8    0    8     Df Joseph Carpenter        6    2    8
Df Louie Peters           11    0   11     Df Gareth Chapman          3    2    5
Mf Noah Evans             10    0   10     Mf Marcos Fernandes        9    2   11
Mf Gianluca Bruno         10    0   10     Mf Rafael  Torres          6    2    8
Fw Oliver Ruby            11    0   11     Mf Daniel Martins          6    2    8
Fw Manuel Maldonado       11    0   11     Fw Liang Xú                7    0    7
Fw Zachary Pilkington     10    0   10     Fw Mason Singh             6    2    8
Fw Kiyoshi Hayashi         8    0    8     Fw Ben Frings              3    2    5

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
       9  9 29 20 40        ROSTER TOTALS       8  5 23 27 20    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
       9  9 29 20 47         T O T A L S        8  5 23 27 20    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Felix Blucher: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 87.86 (no red card)

Sw Nicolas  Pérez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 0.37 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Nicolas  Pérez new match skill level =  4
      Nicolas  Pérez new match total level =  5

Df Ethan Grand: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.6 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 36.01 (no red card)

Df Raphaël Deshayes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 39.14 (no red card)

Df Louie Peters: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 71.29 (no red card)

Mf Noah Evans: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 6.86 (no red card)

Mf Gianluca Bruno: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 25.81 (no red card)

Fw Oliver Ruby: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 11.74 (no red card)

Fw Manuel Maldonado: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 98.09 (no red card)

Fw Zachary Pilkington: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 7.42 (no red card)

Fw Kiyoshi Hayashi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 87.29 (no red card)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Titouan Raoul: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.64 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 21.57 (no red card)

Df Alejandro  Segura: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 54.4 (no red card)

Sw Matthew Webster: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.38 (no red card)

Df Joseph Carpenter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.26 (no red card)

Df Gareth Chapman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.15 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 73.75 (no red card)

Mf Marcos Fernandes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 63.37 (no red card)

Mf Rafael  Torres: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 26.98 (no red card)

Mf Daniel Martins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.8 (no red card)

Fw Liang Xú: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.15 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 53.61 (no red card)

Fw Mason Singh: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 11.33 (no red card)

Fw Ben Frings: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 55.98 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 0
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Felix Blucher: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 23.67 (no injury) 
Sw Nicolas  Pérez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.35 (no injury) 
Df Ethan Grand: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 14.8 (no injury) 
Df Raphaël Deshayes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.23 (no injury) 
Df Louie Peters: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 5.43 (no injury) 
Mf Noah Evans: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 41.3 (no injury) 
Mf Gianluca Bruno: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.0 (no injury) 
Fw Oliver Ruby: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 91.86 (no injury) 
Fw Manuel Maldonado: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 25.16 (no injury) 
Fw Zachary Pilkington: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 78.72 (no injury) 
Fw Kiyoshi Hayashi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 82.44 (no injury) 

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Titouan Raoul: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 15.52 (no injury) 
Df Alejandro  Segura: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.99 (no injury) 
Sw Matthew Webster: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 81.28 (no injury) 
Df Joseph Carpenter: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 26.43 (no injury) 
Df Gareth Chapman: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 23.28 (no injury) 
Mf Marcos Fernandes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 79.46 (no injury) 
Mf Rafael  Torres: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 69.58 (no injury) 
Mf Daniel Martins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 14.0 (no injury) 
Fw Liang Xú: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 11.23 (no injury) 
Fw Mason Singh: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 11.72 (no injury) 
Fw Ben Frings: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 92.64 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Louie Peters SL 11
   - Defending Gk: Titouan Raoul SL 6

     intRndPk = 63
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 63 (no penalty kick)

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Marcos Fernandes SL 9
   - Defending Gk: Felix Blucher SL 8

     intRndPk = 81
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 81 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Brighton & Hove Albion   9   5  29  20  47
  Bristol City FC          8   5  23  27  20

Brighton & Hove Albion Fw Attacks = 24 (47 - 23); result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Mf Attacks = 0 ((20 - 27) / 2;  rounded up)
Brighton & Hove Albion Df Attacks = 3 ((29 - 20) / 3); result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Total Attacks = 27

1: Attack for Df Louie Peters
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Raphaël Deshayes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Louie Peters
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 90.04 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Fw Zachary Pilkington
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Fw Oliver Ruby
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Fw Oliver Ruby
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 34.9 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 42 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 88 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 97.79 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Fw Oliver Ruby
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 55 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 57 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 81.74 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
10: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 50 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 30.9 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Oliver Ruby
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Zachary Pilkington
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 34.11 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Zachary Pilkington
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 86.71 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
14: Attack for Fw Kiyoshi Hayashi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 58 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 60 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 54.74 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 74.31 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
16: Attack for Fw Kiyoshi Hayashi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 48 (Shot Off Target) 
17: Attack for Fw Kiyoshi Hayashi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 21.68 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
18: Attack for Fw Oliver Ruby
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Zachary Pilkington
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
20: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 45 (Shot Off Target) 
21: Attack for Fw Oliver Ruby
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Oliver Ruby
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 51 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 22.64 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
25: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 50 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
26: Attack for Fw Oliver Ruby
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 13.49 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
27: Attack for Fw Manuel Maldonado
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 45 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 2.44 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Bristol City FC          8   5  23  27  20
  Brighton & Hove Albion   9   5  29  20  47

Bristol City FC Fw Attacks = 0 (20 - 29)
Bristol City FC Mf Attacks = 4 ((27 - 20) / 2) ; result rounded up
Bristol City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((23 - 47) / 3;  rounded up)
Bristol City FC Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Mf Marcos Fernandes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 60.25% | Random number = 62.34 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Mf Daniel Martins
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 60.25% | Random number = 51.96 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Mf Rafael  Torres
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 78 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 60.25% | Random number = 30.19 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Mf Daniel Martins
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION 5  -  BRISTOL CITY FC 1
 
Match Notes
Brighton have not had the best of starts, so will be keen to make the most of their home advantage. We will be trying, desperately, to work out how to get something out of an away game.
Ellis (Bristol City FC) 08/19 - 5:10 AM
27 attacks. SW should stop 40% leaving, say 16. GK should save 58% meaning a loss of 7 goals. 5-1 was a good result!
Ellis (Bristol City FC) 08/26 - 5:41 AM
 
 
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