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Watford
James Tucker
 
Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
 
 
League Round 18
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

WATFORD                                    NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Craig Thomas           15    2   17     Gk Joseph Wheeler         15    2   17
Sw John MacDonald         16    2   18     Sw Reece MacKay           15    2   17
Df Stewart Tufnel         14    1   15     Df Arjen Schaffer         14    2   16
Df Peter Burns            13    2   15     Df Stewart Lester         13    1   14
Df Adam Doherty            9    2   11     Df Joshua Brown            9    2   11
Mf Terry Bailey           12    1   13     Df Mark Daugherty          5    2    7
Mf Agostino Mariani        5    2    7     Mf Mason Mitchell         15    1   16
Fw Fionn Quinn            16   -2   14     Mf Tobias Lehmann         11    2   13
Fw André Ferreira         15    1   16     Fw Ben Shepherd           16    0   16
Fw Thomas Fergusen        16    1   17     Fw Nigel Carter           14    2   16
Fw Joe Lennon             10    2   12     Fw Rodion Semyonov         5    2    7

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 18 41 20 59        ROSTER TOTALS      17 17 48 29 39    
       0  0  1  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  2  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  3  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  5  2  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 18 42 22 66         T O T A L S       20 22 50 29 39    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  WATFORD YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Craig Thomas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 21.13 (no red card)

Sw John MacDonald: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 5.52 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.12% | Random number = 72.75 (no second yellow)

Df Stewart Tufnel: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 80.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 20.76 (no red card)

Df Peter Burns: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 96.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 2.38 (no red card)

Df Adam Doherty: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 14.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 98.5 (no red card)

Mf Terry Bailey: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 5.35 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.12% | Random number = 56.78 (no second yellow)

Mf Agostino Mariani: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 33.6 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 95.12 (no red card)

Fw Fionn Quinn: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 47.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 78.9 (no red card)

Fw André Ferreira: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 25.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 33.07 (no red card)

Fw Thomas Fergusen: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 14.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 27.53 (no red card)

Fw Joe Lennon: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 79.77 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 2.64 (no red card)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.48 (no red card)

Sw Reece MacKay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.97 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 76.61 (no red card)

Df Arjen Schaffer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 72.37 (no red card)

Df Stewart Lester: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 71.78 (no red card)

Df Joshua Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 42.67 (no red card)

Df Mark Daugherty: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 86.39 (no red card)

Mf Mason Mitchell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 32.35 (no red card)

Mf Tobias Lehmann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 92.52 (no red card)

Fw Ben Shepherd: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 45.64 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Carter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 9.43 (no red card)

Fw Rodion Semyonov: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 12.79 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  WATFORD CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Watford Team Hardness = 1
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Craig Thomas: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 10.93 (no injury) 
Sw John MacDonald: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 56.59 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Tufnel: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 18.95 (no injury) 
Df Peter Burns: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 55.55 (no injury) 
Df Adam Doherty: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 52.57 (no injury) 
Mf Terry Bailey: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 7.85 (no injury) 
Mf Agostino Mariani: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 22.3 (no injury) 
Fw Fionn Quinn: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 98.14 (no injury) 
Fw André Ferreira: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 51.79 (no injury) 
Fw Thomas Fergusen: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 42.58 (no injury) 
Fw Joe Lennon: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 20.99 (no injury) 

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - Watford Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 95.08 (no injury) 
Sw Reece MacKay: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 33.89 (no injury) 
Df Arjen Schaffer: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 30.48 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Lester: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 1.4 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Stewart Lester is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Df Joshua Brown: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 75.74 (no injury) 
Df Mark Daugherty: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 0.32 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 3
      Mark Daugherty is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 2 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Mark Daugherty new match skill level =  3
      Mark Daugherty new match total level =  5
Mf Mason Mitchell: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 99.21 (no injury) 
Mf Tobias Lehmann: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 39.12 (no injury) 
Fw Ben Shepherd: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 0.68 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Ben Shepherd is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Ben Shepherd new match skill level =  8
      Ben Shepherd new match total level =  8
Fw Nigel Carter: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 81.23 (no injury) 
Fw Rodion Semyonov: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 5.06 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Fionn Quinn SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Joseph Wheeler SL 15

     intRndPk = 40
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 40 (no penalty kick)

*******  WATFORD CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Mason Mitchell SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Craig Thomas SL 15

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 98 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  WATFORD ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Watford                  17  18  42  22  66
  Nottingham Forest        20  22  48  29  31

Watford Fw Attacks = 18 (66 - 48); result rounded up
Watford Mf Attacks = 0 ((22 - 29) / 2;  rounded up)
Watford Df Attacks = 4 ((42 - 31) / 3); result rounded up
Watford Total Attacks = 22

1: Attack for Df Adam Doherty
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Stewart Tufnel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Stewart Tufnel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 85.45 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Df Adam Doherty
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 66 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Joe Lennon
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 73 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Joe Lennon
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 90.4 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
10: Attack for Fw André Ferreira
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw André Ferreira
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 66 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 86.27 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
19: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Fionn Quinn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 85.0% | Random number = 73.65 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
22: Attack for Fw Thomas Fergusen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Nottingham Forest        20  22  48  29  31
  Watford                  17  18  42  22  66

Nottingham Forest is Playing For A Draw!
Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 0 (31 - 42)
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 2 ((29 - 22) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((48 - 66) / 3;  rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Mf Mason Mitchell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 79.31 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Mf Tobias Lehmann
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
WATFORD 3  -  NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1
 
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