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Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
 
Weston-super-Mare AFC
Vick Hall
 
 
League Round 17
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

NOTTINGHAM FOREST                          WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Joseph Wheeler         14    2   16     Gk Kian Trickelbank       15    2   17
Sw Joseph Smalls          14    1   15     Sw Finlay Harvey          16    2   18
Df Reece MacKay            8    1    9     Df Alessio Costa          15    2   17
Df Stewart Lester         14    2   16     Df Michele Testa          14    2   16
Df Luca Boga              10    2   12     Df Harley Stephenson      15    2   17
Mf Nigel Ruddle           16    2   18     Df Fernando Lebre          5    2    7
Mf Mason Mitchell         14    0   14     Mf Owen Marsh             16    2   18
Mf Isaac Ryan             11    2   13     Mf Carleton Thomas        13    2   15
Fw Ben Shepherd           15    2   17     Mf Algernon Pike           9    2   11
Fw Paul Drinkwater        16    1   17     Fw Artyom Morozov         16    2   18
Fw Nigel Carter           10    2   12     Fw Anton Ekström          13    2   15

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      16 15 37 45 46        ROSTER TOTALS      17 18 57 44 33    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16 15 37 45 55         T O T A L S       17 18 57 44 33    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 91.67 (no red card)

Sw Joseph Smalls: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 36.53 (no red card)

Df Reece MacKay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.64 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 38.9 (no red card)

Df Stewart Lester: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 95.53 (no red card)

Df Luca Boga: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 5.11 (no red card)

Mf Nigel Ruddle: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 29.54 (no red card)

Mf Mason Mitchell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 85.65 (no red card)

Mf Isaac Ryan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.65 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 4.98 (no red card)

Fw Ben Shepherd: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 12.61 (no red card)

Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 9.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 28.62 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Carter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 9.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 31.04 (no red card)

*******  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Kian Trickelbank: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.64 (no red card)

Sw Finlay Harvey: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 9.21 (no red card)

Df Alessio Costa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 77.6 (no red card)

Df Michele Testa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 1.17 (no red card)

Df Harley Stephenson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 50.37 (no red card)

Df Fernando Lebre: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 14.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 52.23 (no red card)

Mf Owen Marsh: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.58 (no red card)

Mf Carleton Thomas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.34 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 10.16 (no red card)

Mf Algernon Pike: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 18.03 (no red card)

Fw Artyom Morozov: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 11.8 (no red card)

Fw Anton Ekström: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 66.62 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - Weston-super-Mare AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 29.43 (no injury) 
Sw Joseph Smalls: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 5.47 (no injury) 
Df Reece MacKay: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 68.72 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Lester: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.76 (no injury) 
Df Luca Boga: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 66.73 (no injury) 
Mf Nigel Ruddle: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 83.29 (no injury) 
Mf Mason Mitchell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 88.01 (no injury) 
Mf Isaac Ryan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.91 (no injury) 
Fw Ben Shepherd: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.08 (no injury) 
Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 71.13 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Carter: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 75.97 (no injury) 

*******  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Weston-super-Mare AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Kian Trickelbank: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 32.73 (no injury) 
Sw Finlay Harvey: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 61.51 (no injury) 
Df Alessio Costa: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.11 (no injury) 
Df Michele Testa: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 4.52 (no injury) 
Df Harley Stephenson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.97 (no injury) 
Df Fernando Lebre: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 89.77 (no injury) 
Mf Owen Marsh: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 1.27 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Owen Marsh is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Mf Carleton Thomas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 2.9 (no injury) 
Mf Algernon Pike: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 23.43 (no injury) 
Fw Artyom Morozov: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 65.23 (no injury) 
Fw Anton Ekström: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.36 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Nigel Ruddle SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Kian Trickelbank SL 15

     intRndPk = 4
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 4 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 84% | Random number = 44 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Owen Marsh SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Joseph Wheeler SL 14

     intRndPk = 86
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 86 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Nottingham Forest        16  15  37  45  55
  Weston-super-Mare AFC    17  18  57  44  33

Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 0 (55 - 57)
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 1 ((45 - 44) / 2) ; result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 2 ((37 - 33) / 3); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 3

1: Attack for Df Luca Boga
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Reece MacKay
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Mason Mitchell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 64 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 93.44 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 

*******  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Weston-super-Mare AFC    17  18  57  44  33
  Nottingham Forest        16  15  37  45  55

Weston-super-Mare AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (33 - 37)
Weston-super-Mare AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((44 - 45) / 2;  rounded up)
Weston-super-Mare AFC Df Attacks = 1 ((57 - 55) / 3); result rounded up
Weston-super-Mare AFC Total Attacks = 1

1: Attack for Df Michele Testa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 45.57 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 2  -  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC 0
 
Match Notes
Steve (Nottingham Forest) 10/04 - 10:31 PM
Well that gets us out the bottom three.
Steve (Nottingham Forest) 10/06 - 8:17 PM
 
 
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