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Oldham Athletic AFC
Tim Batth
 
Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
 
 
League Round 16
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC                        NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Ethan Chambers         10    2   12     Gk Joseph Wheeler         15    2   17
Df Thomas Murray          17    0   17     Sw Reece MacKay           15    2   17
Df Susumu Takahashi       15    0   15     Df Arjen Schaffer         13    2   15
Df Harvey Charlton         9    2   11     Df Stewart Lester         13    1   14
Mf Greg Pastor            17    0   17     Df Joshua Brown            9    2   11
Mf Joćo DaSilva           15    0   15     Df Mark Daugherty          4    2    6
Mf Marco Costa            12    2   14     Mf Nigel Ruddle           13    1   14
Mf Reece Curtis            9    2   11     Mf Joan Soler              4    2    6
Mf Carlton Bailey          6    2    8     Fw Glen Shepherd           8    0    8
Fw Leo Smith              14    0   14     Fw Luca Köhler             8    2   10
Fw Ellis Hunter            9    2   11     Fw Rodion Semyonov         4    2    6

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      12  0 43 65 25        ROSTER TOTALS      17 17 46 20 24    
       0  0  0  1  1          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  2  0  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  5  2  0  0    
=======================================================================
      12  0 45 66 33         T O T A L S       17 22 48 20 24    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Ethan Chambers: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 2.91 (no red card)

Df Thomas Murray: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 97.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 9.62 (no red card)

Df Susumu Takahashi: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 35.38 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 27.87 (no red card)

Df Harvey Charlton: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 84.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 37.23 (no red card)

Mf Greg Pastor: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 62.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 90.47 (no red card)

Mf Joćo DaSilva: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 63.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 82.69 (no red card)

Mf Marco Costa: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 46.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 20.82 (no red card)

Mf Reece Curtis: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 82.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 44.01 (no red card)

Mf Carlton Bailey: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 27.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 33.33 (no red card)

Fw Leo Smith: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 48.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 82.9 (no red card)

Fw Ellis Hunter: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 74.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 79.79 (no red card)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 10.47 (no red card)

Sw Reece MacKay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.51 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 4.84 (no red card)

Df Arjen Schaffer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 31.17 (no red card)

Df Stewart Lester: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 53.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 29.46 (no red card)

Df Joshua Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 5.29 (no red card)

Df Mark Daugherty: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 49.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 66.98 (no red card)

Mf Nigel Ruddle: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 91.59 (no red card)

Mf Joan Soler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.23 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 41.67 (no red card)

Fw Glen Shepherd: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 17.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 62.65 (no red card)

Fw Luca Köhler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 72.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 90.57 (no red card)

Fw Rodion Semyonov: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 34.39 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Oldham Athletic AFC Team Hardness = 2
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.5%
Gk Ethan Chambers: Chance of injury = 1.5% | Random number = 20.52 (no injury) 
Df Thomas Murray: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 10.39 (no injury) 
Df Susumu Takahashi: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 40.74 (no injury) 
Df Harvey Charlton: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 51.2 (no injury) 
Mf Greg Pastor: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 33.91 (no injury) 
Mf Joćo DaSilva: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 92.7 (no injury) 
Mf Marco Costa: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 53.38 (no injury) 
Mf Reece Curtis: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 98.89 (no injury) 
Mf Carlton Bailey: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 56.87 (no injury) 
Fw Leo Smith: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 85.39 (no injury) 
Fw Ellis Hunter: Chance of injury = 3.0% | Random number = 71.1 (no injury) 

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - Oldham Athletic AFC Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.0%
Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of injury = 2.0% | Random number = 2.01 (no injury) 
Sw Reece MacKay: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 78.59 (no injury) 
Df Arjen Schaffer: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 80.18 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Lester: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 29.16 (no injury) 
Df Joshua Brown: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 18.94 (no injury) 
Df Mark Daugherty: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 74.19 (no injury) 
Mf Nigel Ruddle: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 37.42 (no injury) 
Mf Joan Soler: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 97.55 (no injury) 
Fw Glen Shepherd: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 77.65 (no injury) 
Fw Luca Köhler: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 28.24 (no injury) 
Fw Rodion Semyonov: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 81.22 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Thomas Murray SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Joseph Wheeler SL 15

     intRndPk = 59
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 59 (no penalty kick)

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Arjen Schaffer SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Ethan Chambers SL 10

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 48 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 50 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Oldham Athletic AFC      12   0  45  66  33
  Nottingham Forest        17  22  48  20  24

Oldham Athletic AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (33 - 48)
Oldham Athletic AFC Mf Attacks = 23 ((66 - 20) / 2) ; result rounded up
Oldham Athletic AFC Df Attacks = 5 ((45 - 24) / 5); result rounded up
Oldham Athletic AFC Total Attacks = 28

1: Attack for Df Thomas Murray
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 96.09 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Df Susumu Takahashi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 54.8 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Susumu Takahashi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Thomas Murray
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 75.46 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Df Susumu Takahashi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 72 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Greg Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Mf Reece Curtis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Mf Greg Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Mf Reece Curtis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Mf Reece Curtis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Mf Greg Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 9.06 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
17: Attack for Mf Greg Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target) 
18: Attack for Mf Greg Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Mf Greg Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
21: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 65 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Mf Greg Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack) 
23: Attack for Mf Reece Curtis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Mf Carlton Bailey
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target) 
25: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Mf Greg Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 58 (Sw stopped attack) 
27: Attack for Mf Joćo DaSilva
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target) 
28: Attack for Mf Marco Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 74% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Nottingham Forest        17  22  48  20  24
  Oldham Athletic AFC      12   0  45  66  33

Nottingham Forest is Playing For A Draw!
Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 0 (24 - 45)
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 0 ((20 - 66) / 2;  rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 3 ((48 - 33) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 3

1: Attack for Df Stewart Lester
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 1.8 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Joshua Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 48.07 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Stewart Lester
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Oldham Athletic AFC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 22.87 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
OLDHAM ATHLETIC AFC 1  -  NOTTINGHAM FOREST 0
 
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