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Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
 
Brentford FC
Allan Sellers
 
 
League Round 15
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

NOTTINGHAM FOREST                          BRENTFORD FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Joseph Wheeler         14    2   16     Gk Tom Lang               16    1   17
Sw Reece MacKay            9    1   10     Sw Lewis Fortune-West     15   -1   14
Df Stewart Lester         13    2   15     Df José Andrade           13    2   15
Df Martin Giles            7    1    8     Df Liam Wright            10    2   12
Df Mason Mitchell         11    0   11     Df Guillaume Mallet        9    2   11
Mf Isaac Ryan             11    2   13     Mf Rhys Davidson          13    1   14
Fw Antonio Ferri          13    0   13     Mf Matty Gerrard           9    2   11
Fw Paul Drinkwater        16    0   16     Fw Ashton Matthews        20    1   21
Fw Nigel Carter            9    2   11     Fw Love Sundström         14    2   16
Mf Matías Silva            4    2    6     Fw Aleksei Novikov        13    2   15
Mf Gregg Shilton           4    2    6     Fw Oliver Duckworth       13    1   14

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      16 10 34 25 40        ROSTER TOTALS      17 14 38 25 66    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  9  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  5  2  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16 15 45 25 40         T O T A L S       17 14 38 25 66    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 71.02 (no red card)

Sw Reece MacKay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 53.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 90.23 (no red card)

Df Stewart Lester: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 60.81 (no red card)

Df Martin Giles: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 91.64 (no red card)

Df Mason Mitchell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 18.94 (no red card)

Mf Isaac Ryan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 69.91 (no red card)

Fw Antonio Ferri: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.07 (no red card)

Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 2.65 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 28.75 (no second yellow)

Fw Nigel Carter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 37.3 (no red card)

Mf Matías Silva: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 2.81 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 6.39 (no second yellow)

Mf Gregg Shilton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 25.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 4.44 (no red card)

*******  BRENTFORD FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Tom Lang: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 69.48 (no red card)

Sw Lewis Fortune-West: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.15 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.92 (no red card)

Df José Andrade: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 74.71 (no red card)

Df Liam Wright: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 57.43 (no red card)

Df Guillaume Mallet: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 69.95 (no red card)

Mf Rhys Davidson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 37.36 (no red card)

Mf Matty Gerrard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.6 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 14.3 (no red card)

Fw Ashton Matthews: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 84.75 (no red card)

Fw Love Sundström: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 84.94 (no red card)

Fw Aleksei Novikov: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.88 (no red card)

Fw Oliver Duckworth: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 45.04 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 59.1 (no injury) 
Sw Reece MacKay: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 32.03 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Lester: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.79 (no injury) 
Df Martin Giles: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 40.07 (no injury) 
Df Mason Mitchell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.86 (no injury) 
Mf Isaac Ryan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 63.63 (no injury) 
Fw Antonio Ferri: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.86 (no injury) 
Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 55.36 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Carter: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 24.04 (no injury) 
Mf Matías Silva: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 97.16 (no injury) 
Mf Gregg Shilton: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 62.92 (no injury) 

*******  BRENTFORD FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Tom Lang: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 9.77 (no injury) 
Sw Lewis Fortune-West: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.74 (no injury) 
Df José Andrade: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 53.28 (no injury) 
Df Liam Wright: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 0.04 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Liam Wright is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Df Guillaume Mallet: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 17.46 (no injury) 
Mf Rhys Davidson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 63.03 (no injury) 
Mf Matty Gerrard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 55.71 (no injury) 
Fw Ashton Matthews: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.81 (no injury) 
Fw Love Sundström: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.14 (no injury) 
Fw Aleksei Novikov: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 40.36 (no injury) 
Fw Oliver Duckworth: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.73 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BRENTFORD FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Paul Drinkwater SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Tom Lang SL 16

     intRndPk = 25
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 25 (no penalty kick)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Ashton Matthews SL 20
   - Defending Gk: Joseph Wheeler SL 14

     intRndPk = 27
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 27 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Nottingham Forest        16  15  45  25  40
  Brentford FC             17  14  38  25  66

Nottingham Forest is Playing For A Draw!
Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 1 (40 - 38) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 25) / 2;  rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((45 - 66) / 3;  rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 1

1: Attack for Fw Antonio Ferri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 24.98 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  BRENTFORD FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Brentford FC             17  14  38  25  66
  Nottingham Forest        16  15  45  25  40

Brentford FC Fw Attacks = 21 (66 - 45); result rounded up
Brentford FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 25) / 2;  rounded up)
Brentford FC Df Attacks = 0 ((38 - 40) / 3;  rounded up)
Brentford FC Total Attacks = 21

1: Attack for Fw Love Sundström
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 79.49 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 50.54 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Aleksei Novikov
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Aleksei Novikov
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Love Sundström
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Love Sundström
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Love Sundström
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 79.49 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
12: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 12.08 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Love Sundström
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 25 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Oliver Duckworth
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 43 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 56.15 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
16: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 29.41 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
17: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Oliver Duckworth
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Oliver Duckworth
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 55 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Ashton Matthews
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Oliver Duckworth
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 0  -  BRENTFORD FC 2
 
Match Notes
Come on Forest you don't want Brentford winning a game at the City ground for the first time ever now do you?
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 09/28 - 11:59 AM
Fortunate to get the win.
Allan (Brentford FC) 09/29 - 8:08 PM
 
 
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