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Brentford FC
Allan Sellers
 
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
 
League Round 15
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

BRENTFORD FC                               CARLISLE UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Matías Abreu           16    2   18     Gk Billy Rooney            9    2   11
Sw Zachary Johnson        14    1   15     Sw Keith Dohm             15    2   17
Df Saburo Fukuda          14    2   16     Df Angelo Tosato          14    2   16
Df José Andrade            9    2   11     Df Gary Becker            13    2   15
Mf Joshua Burke           13    1   14     Df Gabriel Johnson        13    2   15
Mf Rhys Davidson           9   -1    8     Df Samuel Bogaerts         9    2   11
Mf Lachlan Wilson          9   -1    8     Mf Freddie Dury           13    2   15
Fw Ashton Matthews        15    0   15     Mf Douglas Rodrigues      13    2   15
Fw Ben Gordon             15    1   16     Mf Finn Brown              9    2   11
Fw Giles Fisher           13    1   14     Fw Bruce Morgan           10    1   11
Fw Oliver Duckworth        9    2   11     Fw Nigel Nicholson         9   -2    7

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      18 15 27 30 56        ROSTER TOTALS      11 17 57 41 18    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  9  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      18 15 36 30 56         T O T A L S       11 17 64 41 18    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  BRENTFORD FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Matías Abreu: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 26.15 (no red card)

Sw Zachary Johnson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 24.08 (no red card)

Df Saburo Fukuda: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.23 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 34.9 (no red card)

Df José Andrade: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.64 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 68.82 (no second yellow)

Mf Joshua Burke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 35.84 (no red card)

Mf Rhys Davidson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 77.06 (no red card)

Mf Lachlan Wilson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 44.47 (no red card)

Fw Ashton Matthews: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 12.9 (no red card)

Fw Ben Gordon: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 10.03 (no red card)

Fw Giles Fisher: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 65.57 (no red card)

Fw Oliver Duckworth: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 13.55 (no red card)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.23 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 14.48 (no red card)

Sw Keith Dohm: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 16.08 (no red card)

Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 90.08 (no red card)

Df Gary Becker: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 9.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 19.42 (no red card)

Df Gabriel Johnson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.88 (no red card)

Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.88 (no red card)

Mf Freddie Dury: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 54.48 (no red card)

Mf Douglas Rodrigues: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 93.0 (no red card)

Mf Finn Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 72.5 (no red card)

Fw Bruce Morgan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 96.24 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 87.57 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  BRENTFORD FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Matías Abreu: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 11.28 (no injury) 
Sw Zachary Johnson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 61.16 (no injury) 
Df Saburo Fukuda: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 49.92 (no injury) 
Df José Andrade: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.63 (no injury) 
Mf Joshua Burke: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 70.35 (no injury) 
Mf Rhys Davidson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 0.06 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Rhys Davidson is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Rhys Davidson new match skill level =  5
      Rhys Davidson new match total level =  4
Mf Lachlan Wilson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 52.56 (no injury) 
Fw Ashton Matthews: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.36 (no injury) 
Fw Ben Gordon: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.41 (no injury) 
Fw Giles Fisher: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 71.14 (no injury) 
Fw Oliver Duckworth: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 57.38 (no injury) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
   - Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Billy Rooney: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 55.96 (no injury) 
Sw Keith Dohm: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.77 (no injury) 
Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 75.54 (no injury) 
Df Gary Becker: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 70.54 (no injury) 
Df Gabriel Johnson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 49.82 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.73 (no injury) 
Mf Freddie Dury: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.62 (no injury) 
Mf Douglas Rodrigues: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 98.19 (no injury) 
Mf Finn Brown: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.18 (no injury) 
Fw Bruce Morgan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 75.21 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Nicholson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 46.67 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Ashton Matthews SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Billy Rooney SL 9

     intRndPk = 48
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 48 (no penalty kick)

*******  BRENTFORD FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Angelo Tosato SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Matías Abreu SL 16

     intRndPk = 59
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 59 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  BRENTFORD FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Brentford FC             18  15  36  26  56
  Carlisle United          11  17  64  41  18

Brentford FC Fw Attacks = 0 (56 - 64)
Brentford FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((26 - 41) / 2;  rounded up)
Brentford FC Df Attacks = 6 ((36 - 18) / 3); result rounded up
Brentford FC Total Attacks = 6

1: Attack for Df Saburo Fukuda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df José Andrade
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Saburo Fukuda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Saburo Fukuda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Df José Andrade
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Df José Andrade
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 8 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          11  17  64  41  18
  Brentford FC             18  15  36  26  56

Carlisle United is Playing For A Draw!
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 0 (18 - 36)
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 4 ((41 - 26) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 2 ((64 - 56) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 6

1: Attack for Df Angelo Tosato
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Gabriel Johnson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Douglas Rodrigues
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Mf Douglas Rodrigues
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 81.11 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
5: Attack for Mf Douglas Rodrigues
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 51.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Mf Finn Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 48.46 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
BRENTFORD FC 0  -  CARLISLE UNITED 1
 
Match Notes
Surprised to come away with the win, but not complaining.
Dave (Carlisle United) 01/21 - 12:02 AM
 
 
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