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Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
 
Crewe Alexandra FC
Bill Ramsay
 
 
League Round 12
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

NOTTINGHAM FOREST                          CREWE ALEXANDRA FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Joseph Wheeler         14    2   16     Gk Harrison Holland        8    2   10
Sw Joseph Smalls          13    0   13     Sw Gabriel Martin         15    2   17
Df Stewart Lester         11    1   12     Df Thomas Charlton        13    0   13
Df Luca Boga               8    2   10     Df Nigel Clarke            9    2   11
Df Xavier Muñoz            5    2    7     Df William Gascoigne       7    2    9
Mf Nigel Ruddle           15    1   16     Mf Martin Hunt            13    2   15
Mf Mason Mitchell         11    2   13     Mf Gaëtan Adam            13    0   13
Mf Isaac Ryan             11    2   13     Mf Alvaro  Rodríguez       8    1    9
Fw Ben Shepherd           15    1   16     Fw Fernando Neves         17    1   18
Fw Antonio Ferri          13    0   13     Fw Victor Jensen          14    2   16
Fw Paul Drinkwater        16    0   16     Fw Erling Hauge           13    0   13

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      16 13 29 42 45        ROSTER TOTALS      10 17 33 37 47    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  9  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16 13 38 42 45         T O T A L S       10 17 33 37 47    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 21.41 (no red card)

Sw Joseph Smalls: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 69.95 (no red card)

Df Stewart Lester: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 11.65 (no red card)

Df Luca Boga: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 25.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 61.54 (no red card)

Df Xavier Muñoz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 18.42 (no red card)

Mf Nigel Ruddle: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 44.56 (no red card)

Mf Mason Mitchell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 21.09 (no red card)

Mf Isaac Ryan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 32.48 (no red card)

Fw Ben Shepherd: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.51 (no red card)

Fw Antonio Ferri: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 17.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 7.21 (no red card)

Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 9.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 9.05 (no red card)

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Harrison Holland: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 15.19 (no red card)

Sw Gabriel Martin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 70.34 (no red card)

Df Thomas Charlton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 33.15 (no red card)

Df Nigel Clarke: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 70.11 (no red card)

Df William Gascoigne: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.97 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.13 (no red card)

Mf Martin Hunt: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 14.87 (no red card)

Mf Gaëtan Adam: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 70.79 (no red card)

Mf Alvaro  Rodríguez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 45.58 (no red card)

Fw Fernando Neves: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.37 (no red card)

Fw Victor Jensen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 82.96 (no red card)

Fw Erling Hauge: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 3.75 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 48.79 (no injury) 
Sw Joseph Smalls: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 20.15 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Lester: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 78.05 (no injury) 
Df Luca Boga: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 69.97 (no injury) 
Df Xavier Muñoz: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 38.48 (no injury) 
Mf Nigel Ruddle: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 78.52 (no injury) 
Mf Mason Mitchell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 10.28 (no injury) 
Mf Isaac Ryan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.68 (no injury) 
Fw Ben Shepherd: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 91.71 (no injury) 
Fw Antonio Ferri: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 24.59 (no injury) 
Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 95.09 (no injury) 

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Harrison Holland: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 55.65 (no injury) 
Sw Gabriel Martin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 61.91 (no injury) 
Df Thomas Charlton: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 91.23 (no injury) 
Df Nigel Clarke: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 91.4 (no injury) 
Df William Gascoigne: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 97.79 (no injury) 
Mf Martin Hunt: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.95 (no injury) 
Mf Gaëtan Adam: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 52.51 (no injury) 
Mf Alvaro  Rodríguez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 24.6 (no injury) 
Fw Fernando Neves: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.98 (no injury) 
Fw Victor Jensen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.52 (no injury) 
Fw Erling Hauge: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 83.89 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Paul Drinkwater SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Harrison Holland SL 8

     intRndPk = 72
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 72 (no penalty kick)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Fernando Neves SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Joseph Wheeler SL 14

     intRndPk = 68
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 68 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Nottingham Forest        16  13  38  42  45
  Crewe Alexandra FC       10  17  33  37  47

Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 12 (45 - 33); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 3 ((42 - 37) / 2) ; result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((38 - 47) / 3;  rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 15

1: Attack for Mf Isaac Ryan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Nigel Ruddle
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 62.5% | Random number = 6.58 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Mf Isaac Ryan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 37 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Paul Drinkwater
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Antonio Ferri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Paul Drinkwater
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 59 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Antonio Ferri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Antonio Ferri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Paul Drinkwater
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Paul Drinkwater
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Ben Shepherd
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Antonio Ferri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 62.5% | Random number = 68.61 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Ben Shepherd
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Ben Shepherd
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Paul Drinkwater
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 62.5% | Random number = 57.72 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Crewe Alexandra FC       10  17  33  37  47
  Nottingham Forest        16  13  38  42  45

Crewe Alexandra FC Fw Attacks = 9 (47 - 38); result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((37 - 42) / 2;  rounded up)
Crewe Alexandra FC Df Attacks = 0 ((33 - 45) / 3;  rounded up)
Crewe Alexandra FC Total Attacks = 9

1: Attack for Fw Fernando Neves
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Erling Hauge
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 65.63 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Fw Victor Jensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 61.36 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Victor Jensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Erling Hauge
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 76.15 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
6: Attack for Fw Erling Hauge
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Fernando Neves
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 85 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 12.67 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Erling Hauge
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 32.18 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Erling Hauge
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1  -  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC 1
 
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