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Lincoln City FC
Mike Cabral
 
Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
 
 
League Round 11
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

LINCOLN CITY FC                            NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Billy Lampard          13    2   15     Gk Joseph Wheeler         15    2   17
Sw Anton Andersen         14    0   14     Sw Reece MacKay           15    2   17
Df Tomaj Bodnár           13    2   15     Df Stewart Lester         13    1   14
Df Riley Russel           13    1   14     Df Arjen Schaffer         11    2   13
Df Jeffrey Giles          12    1   13     Df Luca Boga              10    2   12
Fw Sean Hart              11    0   11     Df Harley Scholes          8    2   10
Mf Barry Ruby             13    0   13     Mf Mason Mitchell         13    1   14
Mf Jon  Solheim           12    0   12     Mf Jakob Jacobsen         10    2   12
Fw Abe Austin             18   -1   17     Fw Ben Shepherd           15    1   16
Fw Simon Combe            12   -1   11     Fw Nigel Carter           11    2   13
Fw Ruslan Smirnov          9    1   10     Fw Paul Drinkwater        13    1   14

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15 14 42 25 49        ROSTER TOTALS      17 17 49 26 43    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  5  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      15 14 42 25 63         T O T A L S       17 17 49 26 43    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  LINCOLN CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Billy Lampard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 60.85 (no red card)

Sw Anton Andersen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 93.44 (no red card)

Df Tomaj Bodnár: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 53.25 (no red card)

Df Riley Russel: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 95.72 (no red card)

Df Jeffrey Giles: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 50.8 (no red card)

Fw Sean Hart: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 80.93 (no red card)

Mf Barry Ruby: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 36.24 (no red card)

Mf Jon  Solheim: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 18.14 (no red card)

Fw Abe Austin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 97.09 (no red card)

Fw Simon Combe: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 11.92 (no red card)

Fw Ruslan Smirnov: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.1 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.25 (no second yellow)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 28.64 (no red card)

Sw Reece MacKay: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 90.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 74.74 (no red card)

Df Stewart Lester: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 36.47 (no red card)

Df Arjen Schaffer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 25.77 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 85.3 (no red card)

Df Luca Boga: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 83.51 (no red card)

Df Harley Scholes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 76.47 (no red card)

Mf Mason Mitchell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 95.81 (no red card)

Mf Jakob Jacobsen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 78.26 (no red card)

Fw Ben Shepherd: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 55.28 (no red card)

Fw Nigel Carter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 13.66 (no red card)

Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.84 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  LINCOLN CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Lincoln City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Billy Lampard: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 59.35 (no injury) 
Sw Anton Andersen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 34.05 (no injury) 
Df Tomaj Bodnár: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 96.44 (no injury) 
Df Riley Russel: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 28.51 (no injury) 
Df Jeffrey Giles: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.08 (no injury) 
Fw Sean Hart: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 20.15 (no injury) 
Mf Barry Ruby: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 9.36 (no injury) 
Mf Jon  Solheim: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 32.72 (no injury) 
Fw Abe Austin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 18.3 (no injury) 
Fw Simon Combe: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 8.87 (no injury) 
Fw Ruslan Smirnov: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 20.37 (no injury) 

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
   - Lincoln City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Joseph Wheeler: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 45.26 (no injury) 
Sw Reece MacKay: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 58.18 (no injury) 
Df Stewart Lester: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 48.56 (no injury) 
Df Arjen Schaffer: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.85 (no injury) 
Df Luca Boga: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 78.1 (no injury) 
Df Harley Scholes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 42.1 (no injury) 
Mf Mason Mitchell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.75 (no injury) 
Mf Jakob Jacobsen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.72 (no injury) 
Fw Ben Shepherd: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.37 (no injury) 
Fw Nigel Carter: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 90.36 (no injury) 
Fw Paul Drinkwater: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 82.51 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Abe Austin SL 18
   - Defending Gk: Joseph Wheeler SL 15

     intRndPk = 63
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 63 (no penalty kick)

*******  LINCOLN CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Ben Shepherd SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Billy Lampard SL 13

     intRndPk = 27
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 27 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  LINCOLN CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Lincoln City FC          15  14  42  25  63
  Nottingham Forest        17  17  49  26  43

Lincoln City FC Fw Attacks = 14 (63 - 49); result rounded up
Lincoln City FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 26) / 2;  rounded up)
Lincoln City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((42 - 43) / 3;  rounded up)
Lincoln City FC Total Attacks = 14

1: Attack for Fw Abe Austin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 25.58 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Simon Combe
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 60 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Abe Austin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Sean Hart
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 48.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Fw Ruslan Smirnov
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 42.23 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Abe Austin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Fw Simon Combe
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Ruslan Smirnov
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Ruslan Smirnov
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 79.54 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
10: Attack for Fw Sean Hart
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Ruslan Smirnov
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 49.93 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Ruslan Smirnov
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 73.47 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Abe Austin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Simon Combe
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Nottingham Forest        17  17  49  26  43
  Lincoln City FC          15  14  42  25  63

Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 1 (43 - 42); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 1 ((26 - 25) / 2) ; result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((49 - 63) / 3;  rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Mf Jakob Jacobsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 29.5 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Paul Drinkwater
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
LINCOLN CITY FC 1  -  NOTTINGHAM FOREST 0
 
Match Notes
Need these points at home vs a tough manager.
Mike (Lincoln City FC) 12/22 - 4:55 PM
 
 
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