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Southend United
Dave Dowson
 
Port Vale FC
John Holden
 
 
League Round 9
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

SOUTHEND UNITED                            PORT VALE FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Harrison Bennett       10    2   12     Gk Gareth Newton           5    2    7
Sw Noe Morice             12    1   13     Sw Owen Curtis            14    2   16
Df Davide Mancini         11    2   13     Df Owen Coppell           13   -1   12
Df Reis  Golan            10    2   12     Df Jay Thomson            10    0   10
Df Geoffrey Jackson       10    2   12     Df Thomas Burgess          6    2    8
Mf Giorgio Valentini      10    2   12     Mf Emile De Vos           12    1   13
Mf Henry Cockayne          9    2   11     Mf Ashley Edwards          7    2    9
Fw Simon Forsberg         12    2   14     Fw Ignacio Martinez       13    0   13
Fw Finlay Neville         11    2   13     Fw Manuel Andrade         16    0   16
Fw Filippo Costa          10    2   12     Fw Julian Guerrero         7    1    8
Fw Fionn Johnston          9    2   11     Fw Jack Williams           5    2    7

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      12 13 37 23 50        ROSTER TOTALS       7 16 30 22 44    
       0  0  0  0  5          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      12 13 37 23 64         T O T A L S        7 16 37 22 44    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 5
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Harrison Bennett: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 34.89 (no red card)

Sw Noe Morice: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 56.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 47.53 (no red card)

Df Davide Mancini: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 15.39 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 77.5 (no second yellow)

Df Reis  Golan: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 72.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 38.55 (no red card)

Df Geoffrey Jackson: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 82.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 6.9 (no red card)

Mf Giorgio Valentini: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 23.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 6.67 (no red card)

Mf Henry Cockayne: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 59.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 6.97 (no red card)

Fw Simon Forsberg: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 90.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 11.79 (no red card)

Fw Finlay Neville: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 99.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 4.97 (no red card)

Fw Filippo Costa: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 21.14 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.62% | Random number = 45.23 (no red card)

Fw Fionn Johnston: Chance of booking = 15.75% | Random number = 9.36 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.62% | Random number = 53.16 (no second yellow)

*******  PORT VALE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Gareth Newton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 57.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 58.21 (no red card)

Sw Owen Curtis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 79.69 (no red card)

Df Owen Coppell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 84.65 (no red card)

Df Jay Thomson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 10.36 (no red card)

Df Thomas Burgess: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 65.27 (no red card)

Mf Emile De Vos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 41.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 1.34 (no red card)

Mf Ashley Edwards: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 91.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 37.77 (no red card)

Fw Ignacio Martinez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 7.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 66.47 (no red card)

Fw Manuel Andrade: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 1.9 (no red card)

Fw Julian Guerrero: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 2.79 (no red card)

Fw Jack Williams: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.54 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 87.69 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - Port Vale FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.87%
Gk Harrison Bennett: Chance of injury = 1.87% | Random number = 71.33 (no injury) 
Sw Noe Morice: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 85.44 (no injury) 
Df Davide Mancini: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 38.07 (no injury) 
Df Reis  Golan: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 68.89 (no injury) 
Df Geoffrey Jackson: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 65.06 (no injury) 
Mf Giorgio Valentini: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 56.18 (no injury) 
Mf Henry Cockayne: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 99.97 (no injury) 
Fw Simon Forsberg: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 63.46 (no injury) 
Fw Finlay Neville: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 11.56 (no injury) 
Fw Filippo Costa: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 48.69 (no injury) 
Fw Fionn Johnston: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 68.01 (no injury) 

*******  PORT VALE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Port Vale FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 5
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 6.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.12%
Gk Gareth Newton: Chance of injury = 3.12% | Random number = 63.89 (no injury) 
Sw Owen Curtis: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 66.36 (no injury) 
Df Owen Coppell: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 13.81 (no injury) 
Df Jay Thomson: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 67.79 (no injury) 
Df Thomas Burgess: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 64.27 (no injury) 
Mf Emile De Vos: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 66.66 (no injury) 
Mf Ashley Edwards: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 10.98 (no injury) 
Fw Ignacio Martinez: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 46.64 (no injury) 
Fw Manuel Andrade: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 66.49 (no injury) 
Fw Julian Guerrero: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 52.78 (no injury) 
Fw Jack Williams: Chance of injury = 6.25% | Random number = 48.36 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  PORT VALE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Simon Forsberg SL 12
   - Defending Gk: Gareth Newton SL 5

     intRndPk = 43
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 43 (no penalty kick)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 5; (5 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Manuel Andrade SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Harrison Bennett SL 10

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 44 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 8 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 94% | Random number = 20 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 37 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 94 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 2 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 94% | Random number = 17 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Southend United          12  13  37  23  64
  Port Vale FC             7  16  37  22  44

Southend United Fw Attacks = 27 (64 - 37); result rounded up
Southend United Mf Attacks = 1 ((23 - 22) / 2) ; result rounded up
Southend United Df Attacks = 0 ((37 - 44) / 3;  rounded up)
Southend United Total Attacks = 28

1: Attack for Mf Henry Cockayne
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 35.95 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Fionn Johnston
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 60 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 58.61 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Fw Fionn Johnston
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 42.6 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Fionn Johnston
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 91.04 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
11: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 61 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 35.47 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Fionn Johnston
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target) 
17: Attack for Fw Fionn Johnston
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Fionn Johnston
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Simon Forsberg
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 33 (Shot Off Target) 
21: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 76 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 70.86 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
23: Attack for Fw Finlay Neville
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
24: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 99.87 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
25: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 42 (Shot Off Target) 
26: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 15 (Shot Off Target) 
27: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 15 (Shot Off Target) 
28: Attack for Fw Filippo Costa
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  PORT VALE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Port Vale FC             7  16  37  22  44
  Southend United          12  13  37  23  64

Port Vale FC is Playing For A Draw!
Port Vale FC Fw Attacks = 4 (44 - 37) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Port Vale FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((22 - 23) / 2;  rounded up)
Port Vale FC Df Attacks = 0 ((37 - 64) / 3;  rounded up)
Port Vale FC Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Fw Ignacio Martinez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Manuel Andrade
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Julian Guerrero
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 40.55 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Ignacio Martinez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
SOUTHEND UNITED 4  -  PORT VALE FC 2
 
Match Notes
I am counting on Southend to win this game!
Abe (Leeds United) 12/11 - 8:12 AM
 
 
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