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Plymouth Argyle FC
Rob Peterson
 
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
 
 
League Round 3
 
 
 
 

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S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC                         CARLISLE UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Nigel Brides           14    0   14     Gk Kuan-Yin Sun           12    2   14
Df Arran Brown            13    1   14     Sw James Dunn              6    2    8
Df Ben Kahn               10    0   10     Df Samuel Bogaerts        10    1   11
Df Nigel Fortune-West     10   -2    8     Df Angelo Tosato           7    2    9
Mf Abe Blazel             13    0   13     Df Benjamin Bell           6    2    8
Mf Simon Schmidt          12    0   12     Df Ashton Burroughs        3    2    5
Mf Ryan Wright            10    0   10     Mf Finn Brown             10    1   11
Mf Jeff Hunter            10    1   11     Mf Mohamed Durieux         6    2    8
Mf Mark Jankel             8    2   10     Mf Edoardo Rinaldi         3    2    5
Fw Jakob Halvorsen        15    0   15     Fw Harley Morrissey        6    2    8
Fw Evan Symes             11    1   12     Fw Craig McDonald          3    2    5

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      14  0 32 56 27        ROSTER TOTALS      14  8 33 24 13    
       2  0  2  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  1  0    
       0  0  3  2  2       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16  0 37 58 29         T O T A L S       14  8 40 25 13    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 4
   - Gk   Hardness = 2

Gk Nigel Brides: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 76.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 6.06 (no red card)

Df Arran Brown: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 85.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 83.54 (no red card)

Df Ben Kahn: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 76.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 39.48 (no red card)

Df Nigel Fortune-West: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 19.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 14.14 (no red card)

Mf Abe Blazel: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 37.51 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 32.37 (no red card)

Mf Simon Schmidt: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 48.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 4.49 (no red card)

Mf Ryan Wright: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 65.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 42.46 (no red card)

Mf Jeff Hunter: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 14.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 89.52 (no red card)

Mf Mark Jankel: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 49.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 35.01 (no red card)

Fw Jakob Halvorsen: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 11.4 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 21.25 (no second yellow)

Fw Evan Symes: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 87.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 2.25% | Random number = 65.28 (no red card)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Kuan-Yin Sun: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 43.9 (no red card)

Sw James Dunn: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 79.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 42.3 (no red card)

Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 34.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 94.02 (no red card)

Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 90.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 26.74 (no red card)

Df Benjamin Bell: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 45.77 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 93.17 (no red card)

Df Ashton Burroughs: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 10.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 53.93 (no red card)

Mf Finn Brown: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 10.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 20.27 (no red card)

Mf Mohamed Durieux: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 49.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 99.93 (no red card)

Mf Edoardo Rinaldi: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 18.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 4.73 (no red card)

Fw Harley Morrissey: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 24.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 78.89 (no red card)

Fw Craig McDonald: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 80.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.12% | Random number = 57.67 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your teamís hardness * .25) + (opponentís hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Plymouth Argyle FC Team Hardness = 4
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.12%
Gk Nigel Brides: Chance of injury = 2.12% | Random number = 4.8 (no injury) 
Df Arran Brown: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 36.48 (no injury) 
Df Ben Kahn: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 55.94 (no injury) 
Df Nigel Fortune-West: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 40.27 (no injury) 
Mf Abe Blazel: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 99.38 (no injury) 
Mf Simon Schmidt: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 78.68 (no injury) 
Mf Ryan Wright: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 43.92 (no injury) 
Mf Jeff Hunter: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 83.18 (no injury) 
Mf Mark Jankel: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 72.65 (no injury) 
Fw Jakob Halvorsen: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 8.51 (no injury) 
Fw Evan Symes: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 56.17 (no injury) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 1
   - Plymouth Argyle FC Team Hardness = 4
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.87%
Gk Kuan-Yin Sun: Chance of injury = 2.87% | Random number = 73.47 (no injury) 
Sw James Dunn: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 33.47 (no injury) 
Df Samuel Bogaerts: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 49.09 (no injury) 
Df Angelo Tosato: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 4.21 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 5
      Angelo Tosato is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 4 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Angelo Tosato new match skill level =  4
      Angelo Tosato new match total level =  6
Df Benjamin Bell: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 28.6 (no injury) 
Df Ashton Burroughs: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 89.75 (no injury) 
Mf Finn Brown: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 8.39 (no injury) 
Mf Mohamed Durieux: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 42.1 (no injury) 
Mf Edoardo Rinaldi: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 19.97 (no injury) 
Fw Harley Morrissey: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 46.65 (no injury) 
Fw Craig McDonald: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 77.16 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Jakob Halvorsen SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Kuan-Yin Sun SL 12

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 15 (no penalty kick)

*******  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 4; (4 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Samuel Bogaerts SL 10
   - Defending Gk: Nigel Brides SL 14

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 55 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 58 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 47 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 65 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Plymouth Argyle FC       16   0  37  58  29
  Carlisle United          14   8  37  25  13

Plymouth Argyle FC Fw Attacks = 0 (29 - 37)
Plymouth Argyle FC Mf Attacks = 17 ((58 - 25) / 2) ; result rounded up
Plymouth Argyle FC Df Attacks = 5 ((37 - 13) / 5); result rounded up
Plymouth Argyle FC Total Attacks = 22

1: Attack for Df Nigel Fortune-West
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Df Nigel Fortune-West
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Ben Kahn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Arran Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Df Arran Brown
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Abe Blazel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 38.28 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Mf Jeff Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Jeff Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Mf Ryan Wright
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Mf Abe Blazel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 56 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 84.06 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
11: Attack for Mf Jeff Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 16 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Mf Ryan Wright
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 12 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Mf Ryan Wright
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 37 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Mf Abe Blazel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Mf Simon Schmidt
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Mf Mark Jankel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 49 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target) 
17: Attack for Mf Ryan Wright
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target) 
18: Attack for Mf Jeff Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 70.66 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Mf Jeff Hunter
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 12.07 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
20: Attack for Mf Abe Blazel
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
21: Attack for Mf Ryan Wright
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Mf Simon Schmidt
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 97.45 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 

*******  CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Carlisle United          14   8  37  25  13
  Plymouth Argyle FC       16   0  37  58  29

Carlisle United is Playing For A Draw!
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 0 (13 - 37)
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 58) / 2;  rounded up)
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 2 ((37 - 29) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Df Benjamin Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 73.65 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Angelo Tosato
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Plymouth Argyle FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 58.5 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
PLYMOUTH ARGYLE FC 2  -  CARLISLE UNITED 0
 
Match Notes
A start to the season that can at best be described as lacklustre. Unlikely to see things improve here - something you all appear to be in agreement with.
Dave (Carlisle United) 11/24 - 12:38 PM
The managers appear to favor Mr. Peterson in this fixture...
Allan (Brentford FC) 11/24 - 2:59 PM
 
 
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