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Offsides Trap - how to balance it out
Posted by Kevin Martin on Monday, Feb. 23rd, 2009 at 9:27 PM

Having previously posted in the other main forum headings, this OST line should be over here instead.

Some thoughts of mine on how to balance out all the plusses of playing OST with some negatives that currently I cannot see:

1) Reduce the odds of a shot being off-target when playing OST. A pass that gets through the OST finds the FW all alone against the GK usually.  The defenders were pushing up field and have to catch back up to the man that got through on the well-timed pass and attck.  The odds of getting off a decent shot should be increased.  Reducing the chance of missing the goal entirely from 35% to 20% or even 10% would balance out the guarantee that half of all FW shots that would have been generated will never even have a chance of scoring.

OR

2) Double the shots that the defense takes in addition to the MF modifier already being doubled (because it is apparent that the MF modifier will likely never been seen anyway). That way a team playing OST will have to play a strong MF and FW area to prevent giving up lots of extra shots. The 2-5-3 or 2-4-4 tactic for OST would become a norm since a 3-5-2 would give start giving up shots to the defense which would be doubled.

OR

3) Reduce the guarantee in shot reduction of the FW's to 40%.  Any lower would make the tactic not worth playing since even an SL 5 SW gets a 40% chance.  Admittedly, the 40% is a guarantee and the extra player to the outfield areas intead of at SW helps the team generate more of their own shots.  This alone wouldn't deter me from using this as a primary strategy. The other team's FW's would have to be generating shots in the 20's before this gives up more than an extra 2 shots.  Simply playing an extra 2/2 schoolboy at FW (instead of having a SW) would give me another 4 shots.

I personally like option 1 the best.  Playing OST as currently set all but guarantees that you will be getting extra shots from your MF and FW's.  In order to balance that, of the 50% of shots that you are going to let through, each of their scoring chances would be more likely to be on target by 25% (reducing the off-target chance from 35% to 10%). The GK save chance would not be reduced, so the overall effect on scoring percentages would be less than 25%. I can show the actual math if anyone doesn't follow that logic.

Readers Comments

 I think I follow everything you've posted Kevin, but I wouldn't mind seeing the math anyway...

Rob Peterson on Monday, Feb. 23rd, 2009 at 10:18 PM
 

OK.  For the math you'll have to bear with me and see if I can get a table to work right for ease of reading...

For all calculations I am not doing every possible SL+Fit combination.  I am hitting the keys 6 for points of reference assuming max (fastest) player development:

Starting out (SL 2 Sby, Fit 2), Season 2 start (SL 5 App, Fit 2), Season 3 start (SL 10, Age I, Fit 0), Season 4 Start (SL 13, Age II, Fit 0), Season 4 Max SL (SL 16, Age II, Fit 0), and Season 4 Max SL+Fit (SL 16, Age II, Fit 2).  Anything in further seasons can only max these stats, they cannot exceed them so this will give the best possible SL scenario.  Worst-possible scenario will also be included, which is an SL 2 player (age irrelevant) with Fitness of -2, for a combined Level of 0.

First, Sweeper stopping chances by skill level:

Sweeper Stop Chance by Level
Age SL Fit Level Stop %
n/a 2 -2 0 30
Sby Start 2 2 4 38
App Start 5 2 7 44
I Start 10 0 10 50
II Start 13 0 13 56
II Max 16 0 16 62
II Max+Fit 16 2 18 66

So you can see that a Sweeper reaches 50% stopping chance at combined level 10.  The earliest this can be reached is as an SL 8/Fit 2 Apprentice.  In order to reach that level quickest, a player has to play in 9 games as a Schoolboy and 6 more as an App, for 15 total matches played/Youth Coach slots used before you have the probability of getting what OST does automatically.

As for the math with Off-Target Shot Chance, I'll use the same SL+Fitness considerations for a GK to stop the shots.  To figure a chance of scoring the shot has to both be On Target and get past the GK.  Multiplying the odds of the two gives the final % of the goal being scored.  For example, a shot has a 65% of being on-target and a 51% chance of scoring (49% save %) against a Sby SL 2 Fit 2 GK, for a combined 33.15% of being a goal.  Because the GK matters more at higher SL levels, the weight of how a shot gets stopped carries more toward the GK at higher SL levels.  The table will be set up as Age, SL, Fitness, Combined Level (all for the GK).  Then a column for the Stop Chance of the GK per the formula in the rules [40 + (GK level x 2.25)%].  Then three columns will follow showing the odds of scoring a goal when at 35% offtarget (.35 x Stop Chance of GK), when at 10% off target (.1 X Stop Chance, my proposed # for OST), and the Difference in Scoring % between the prior two columns.

Scoring Chance per GK Level at 35% and 10% Off-Target Chances
Age SL Fit Level GK Save % 35% Off-Target 10% Off-Target Diff.
n/a 2 -2 0 40 39 54 15
Sby start 2 2 4 49 33.15 45.9 12.75
App start 5 2 7 55.75 28.7625 39.825 11.0625
I start 10 0 10 62.5 24.375 33.75 9.375
II start 13 0 13 69.25 19.9875 27.675 7.6875
II Max 16 0 16 76 15.6 21.6 6
II Max+Fit 16 2 18 80.5 12.675 17.55 4.875

So the final difference in actually scoring a goal against the majority of goalies you will face (Combined SL/Fit of 10+) comes out to less than 10% greater by reducing the Off-Target chance from 35% to 10% per shot.  Against the best Gk typically possible, it is less than 5%.  In other words, Offsides Trap could be used with a good GK with minimal risk.  With a rookie in goal, you would never want to leave the chance that the FW's get to come by unchecked on a good pass and the Gk is on an island to stop the shot.

So the proposed reduction in Off-Target Chance would have an average effect of making those automatically halves FW shots score 10% more frequently if all numbers came out on par over the course of a season.  The actual effect for the first several seasons would be considerably less given that most team already have a GK at SL 12+.

Kevin Martin on Tuesday, Feb. 24th, 2009 at 12:10 AM
 

I listed the wrong formula for the tables.  The calculations are correct.  The formula used should be as follows:

Scoring Chance = On-Target Chance x Getting Past GK Chance.  That is:

Score % = (100-Offtarget%) x (100-GKsave%)

So above the table I listed incorrectly [.35 x Stop Chance] and [.1 x Stop Chance] when that should actually read as:

.65 x (100-Stop Chance) and .9 x (100 - Stop chance)

Where .9 would show a 10% Off-Target Chance, with 90% then being On-Target - i.e. a .9 multiplier.

Again, the table is accurate on chances of scoring a goal.  My descriptor of the formula was wrong.

Kevin Martin on Tuesday, Feb. 24th, 2009 at 12:18 AM
 

Just so i understand the current OST:

Team 1 plays OST. Team 2 midfield shots double and Team 2 forwards shots halved?

or

Team 1 plays OST. Team 1 midfield shots double and Team 2 forwards shots halved?

Kev Hull on Sunday, Nov. 1st, 2009 at 12:39 PM
 

The former.  When you play the OST you affect how many shots the opposition get - from both their MF (doubled) and their FW (halved).

 

Andy Bate on Sunday, Nov. 1st, 2009 at 10:33 PM
 

Neither one helps me. 

Phil McIntosh on Sunday, Nov. 8th, 2009 at 11:05 PM
 
 
 
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