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Carding issues
Posted by Kevin Martin on Saturday, Jan. 21st, 2012 at 12:43 AM

In reviewing some things recently, it appears we have a discrepancy between what the rules say the carding chances should be and what they actually are right now.

The Yellow Card and Red Card formulas as in the rules and as intended are as follows:

"H" in these formulas is the number of hardness points used by your team.  If zero, then every player is at 4.5%.  Goalkeepers are only modified according to the Hardness assigned to the Gk area.  All other players use the Total Team Hardness, including points assigned to the Gk.

Yellow Card chance = 1.5*(3+(H*1.5))
Red Card chance (or 2nd yellow) = .25*(3+(H*1.5))

According to match reports, where the actual percentages and random numbers generated are reported, these formulas are not working correctly across the board.  The yellow carding chance for goalies is working properly.  It is not for all others, and for red cards in general.  What appears to be in place right now are these formulas:

YC = 1.5+(3+(H*1.5))
RC = .25*(3+H)

In the yellow card formula, the first operator is a "plus" instead of a "times."  In the red card, the "times 1.5" modifier to hardness used is missing.

What is the plan?

Al is going to correct this in our off-season and get the game results back on track with what they should be.

How is this going to affect you?

Here is a table for ease of reference.  What is shown is what the program was doing last season, and what it will (hopefully) be doing once back in track with the rules and program design for both Yellow and Red Card chances.  H is hardness used by your team.  Old is what happened this season.  New is what to expect next season and beyond.

H Old YC New YC Old RC New YC
Card Chances
0 4.50% 4.50% 0.75% 0.75%
1 6.00% 6.75% 1.00% 1.13%
2 7.50% 9.00% 1.25% 1.50%
3 9.00% 11.25% 1.50% 1.88%
4 10.50% 13.50% 1.75% 2.25%
5 12.00% 15.75% 2.00% 2.63%
6 13.50% 18.00% 2.25% 3.00%
7 15.00% 20.25% 2.50% 3.38%
8 16.50% 22.50% 2.75% 3.75%
9 18.00% 24.75% 3.00% 4.13%
10 19.50% 27.00% 3.25% 4.50%

If you have questions on the above, shoot me a message through the wonderful in-site message system or an e-mail.

Kevin

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