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Prognostication...
Posted by Allan Sellers on Friday, Dec. 31st, 2010 at 7:35 PM

I'd like to discuss the idea of adding a prognostication competition, similar to what we did this summer for the World Cup.  I'm thinking something like

- 10 matches or so a session available (I'd like a "system" to determine these each session in an automated way; like all CUP semis/finals are IN)

- Two separate competitions (sessions 1-5 and 6-10)

- Minor cash winnings (40k first place; 20k second place; 10k third place)

Again, not really looking to have huge awards, just adding a little fun.

Readers Comments

Since every match gets assigned a unique match number for each season, it shouldn't be too hard to allocate pre-set numbers for the matches every season.

For example, session 4, match 12, (5th league match) will always have match # 125-129 for the Div 1 matches, 130-134 for Div 2, and 135-139 for Div 3.  So you could take one of each each session without difficulty.  Either randomized or pre-set (since the team order appears randomized) would work. I think?

So 10 matches per session doesn't seem too bad to pull off.  With two different blocks (1-5, 6-10), you'd have 50 matches to pick from.  Have to choose at least 40 to qualify as winner?  That leaves one session to NMR/get too busy for orders and picks.  It also prevents a team from getting lucky in the first two sessions and sitting on a high pick percentage without choosing again for the next three weeks.

Suggestions for pick choices:

Session 1: 4 FA Cup opener, 3 each AP rounds

Session 2: Div 1 match 4 & 5 (2), Div 2 match 4 & 5 (2), 4 AP group match 3, 2 FA Cup replay if there are any, if not then Div 3 match 4 & 5.

Session 3: 1 each match 8 & 9 from each division (6), 2 FA Cup round 2, 2 FA Shield round 1

Session 4: Div 1 match 12 & 13 (2), Div 3 match 12 & 13 (2), 4 AP Cup R2, 2 FA Cup R2-replay if any, if not then Div 2 match 12 & 13 (1 or 2).

Session 5: Div 1 match 16 (1), Div 2 match 17 (1), Div 3 match 16 (1), 4 FA Cup Quarters, 3 AP Cup Quarters.

ï»

Session 6: Div 2 match 20 & 21 (2), Div 3 match 20 & 21 (2), 2 FA Shield Quarters, 2 Youth Cup round 1, 2 FA Cup Quarterfinal replay (if any) or else Div 1 match 20 & 21 (1 or 2).

Session 7: 2 AP semis, 2 Youth Cup R2, 1 each league match per division for matches 25 & 26 (6).

Session 8: 2 FA Cup semis, 2 FA Shield semis, 3 Youth Cup quarterfinals, Div 1 match 29 (1), Div 2 match 29 (2), match 3 match 30 (1).

Session 9: AP Final (1), Youth Semis (2), 2 Div 1 match 34 (2), 1 Div 1 match 35 (1), Div 2 match 34 & 35 (2), Div 3 match 34 & 35 (2).

Session 10: FA Cup final, FA Shield Final, Youth Final, Div 1 match 38 (1), 2 Div 1 match 39 (2), 1 each Div 2 matches 38 & 39 (2), 1 each Div 3 matches 38 & 39 (2).

Kevin Martin on Friday, Dec. 31st, 2010 at 9:34 PM
 

Yea... what Kevin said. ;-)

Rob Peterson on Friday, Dec. 31st, 2010 at 11:51 PM
 

I'd prefer to see a winner chosen by total correct selections rather than by a percentage.  It wouldn't seem right to have a leader benefit by choosing not participating in a later round.

Phil McIntosh on Saturday, Jan. 1st, 2011 at 11:41 AM
 

The only thing i'm not sure about is the automatic default for predicting your own team winning, this would give the better teams in the divisions a slight advantage as they will win more games. With home advantage playing a significant part in most games i'd suggest we would go for a win at home and at least a draw away?

Roy Rolsten on Monday, Jan. 3rd, 2011 at 2:05 PM
 

I would like the option of being able to nominate your team as draw rather than win, especially as using play for draw is a tactic that can be employed.

Mark Stretch on Monday, Jan. 3rd, 2011 at 6:03 PM
 

Okay I can get on board with the idea of allowing a win or draw to be selected if its your team (but not a loss).  Any strong objections?

Again I'd like to take the approach of counting everything and that may mean your team is involved in 1-2 matches in a given session's predictions, so I don't want to lose those.

Allan Sellers on Monday, Jan. 3rd, 2011 at 7:27 PM
 

Okay I'm back on the fence on what a coach of his own game can select.  :-)  Its still my requirement that they pick their own game, but I WOULD like to show what everyone has guessed during the week.  If I'm playing Ian I wouldn't want him to know I'm thinking I'm going to get a draw and not a win.   Then again, just to play mind games I'd probably want to choose a loss as my prediction to wind him up.

I guess I'm saying that if want to show that people are really selecting a draw, maybe that gives away info?  And I really want to show what people are predicting as its a good opportunity to instigate rivalries.

Like maybe there's a "you should hate Dave Dohm because he's never picked your team to win this season" query.  

Lastly, thanks Kevin for the input above, great stuff!

 

Allan Sellers on Tuesday, Jan. 4th, 2011 at 5:25 AM
 

I think other people's guesses should be viewable *until* 24 hours prior to the deadline. Within 24 hours of the deadline, voting is becomes hidden - you can only see your own votes from this point until the matches are played. This way, if someone (*cough* Al *cough*) wants to play headgames with Ian and predict a loss for their own team, then they can do that in public, but then change their vote within the last when the votes get hidden.

Rob Peterson on Tuesday, Jan. 4th, 2011 at 5:47 AM
 

This vendetta from the league office is beginning to give me a complex. How in the world can team Lewes ever be successful?

Dave Dohm on Tuesday, Jan. 4th, 2011 at 6:48 AM
 

I don't think teams should be able to pick a loss for their own team.  It sure seems akin to "throwing a match" or at least a distant cousin to it. 

Phil McIntosh on Tuesday, Jan. 4th, 2011 at 7:44 AM
 

I think a manager should be allowed to pick a win or draw for a match their team plays in; this seems like a no brainer.  The loss should not even be an option in this scenario (if that is feasible, Al).

I would prefer not to see what others select, at least not until after the sessions are complete, but I don't really care either way on this point.

I like this pick 'em addition to the league, but as with other suggestions I agree this should stay as simple as possible.

I have no preference on whether the winner is decided by total correct games or a percentage; I can see the pro's and con's of both.

I think the attacks on Mr Dohm have taken away from the real issue in MSWL-U: Northampton will likely be relegated to D2 after this season.  Now that seems like a bandwagon we can all get on board with!

Brian Beerman on Tuesday, Jan. 4th, 2011 at 10:40 AM
 

Is that a prediction, Mr. Beerman?

Phil McIntosh on Wednesday, Jan. 5th, 2011 at 9:01 AM
 

I thought we said noone would be relegated this season...

Rob Peterson on Wednesday, Jan. 5th, 2011 at 6:09 PM
 

I run the prediction league in SESL & from experience I would say that is unwise to have managers predict their own result. If you must then I think a Win prediction is mandatory or we will be entering dangerous waters. I dont like the idea of changing your entry once it is entered either as Managers will use others picks(especially in their own games) to sway their options. I also think it unwise to have any  team represented in more than one of the competion games in any one week.

The way I worked it in SESL was to rotate around each Division games each session ie Session 1 was Div 1 games, Session2 Division 2 ,Session 3 Division 3 then back to Division 1 for session 4 .

I dont l;ike % decisions to pick the winner either!

As I said I have run the SESL Prediction league for 3 or 4 seasons now & its pretty much a successful venture but the rules have to be strictly adhered to or there could be problems!

Dave Dowson on Thursday, Jan. 6th, 2011 at 5:02 PM
 

Oh & I dont like any sugestions about hiding coaches predictions at any time for any reason!

Everything must be transparent all the time

Dave Dowson on Thursday, Jan. 6th, 2011 at 5:05 PM
 

If you want 10 games per session (Forget predicting Cup matches which are often settled by penalties or Extra Time anyway, which negates the draw option)

Session 1 = Div 1 + 2

Session 2 = Div 2+ 3

Session 3 = Div 1 + 3

Session 4 = Div 1+2

Session 5 = Div 2 + 3

Session 6 = Div 1 + 3

Dave Dowson on Thursday, Jan. 6th, 2011 at 5:11 PM
 

Here is a thought - in sessions 2-10 we all play 2 league matches.

Select 1 full League fixture list  = 15 games, and a manager does NOT give a selection for his own team.

That way we all have 14 games to guess on!

In session 1 pick the FA Cup Round as again we will all be involved in 1 match leaving 15 others to guess.

That takes away any "problems" with managers putting in either a win or a draw for themselves, surely!

David Blair on Thursday, Jan. 6th, 2011 at 5:31 PM
 

How many Premier League managers give quotes like, "While we always play tough, I fully expect to lose this coming weekend..." or "We would be overjoyed by getting a draw on the road this week!"  Really?  Pick to win, play to win.  Even if you play to draw, or the youth, surely you have at least a slight hope that you'll get a freak clean sheet and catch a lucky PK break, right?

Kevin Martin on Friday, Jan. 7th, 2011 at 9:45 PM
 

I havent heard too many Premiership managers saying "I fully expect to lose this coming weekend"..

Come to think of it I havent heard any that I can recall!

I dont think they'd be in the job long if they did!

& dont forget that Premiership managers or any other professional football managers would never openly back themselves to lose a game or draw come to that, they might  gratefully take the draw however!

Dave Dowson on Friday, Jan. 7th, 2011 at 10:23 PM
 

Blackpools Ian Holloway has been a breath of fresh air in the premiership this season with his 'the bigger they are the harder they fall' attitude & Gung ho Go for it style of play, they have upset many a Top team already.

Dave Dowson on Friday, Jan. 7th, 2011 at 10:26 PM
 

"You can pick your friends & you can pick your nose but you can't pick your friend's nose"

I do not see anything wrong with predicting a loss for your own team unless there is greater than 1000K @ stakes (ok greater than 100k).  I am not throwing a game (wait one game wouldn't do it...), I mean I am not throwing an entire season to be the Nostradamus of United for a measly 100k.  Are we suspecting there are teams in this league that might?  If so, from the overall intended spirit of this league those people should be ousted.  Hmmm... maybe teams should get RELEGATED from Division 3!  Not sure how... maybe two consecutive seasons?  Maybe if you finish last twice, not bottom three.  Anyhow, this might belong in "firing" managers.  If I am playing Tranmere, as history has shown, even without the Prognostication League, I have lost to him twice in a row.  Should I not be allowed to pick a win versus Brentford then??  The bottom line is that you are expected to provide your objective expertise in selecting/predicting who you THINK will win.  In all honesty, I expected to win each of my last games played against Tranmere.  During one season of fantasy football (AOL 2003?), I won both the league and the pick'em, as it was called.  This would now touch upon the "don't the better teams have a better chance?" topic.  You could weight the number of self picks by ranking or wins or something but in all honesty I am probably going to choose those teams as winners so why shouldn't they be able to?  If there has to be a limit of anything less than all games played then I can understand where some of the dilemmas mentioned become warranted.  Yes, I named names - well teams.

Might need to utilize this picture again in reference to the top hoodlum coach at the end of the season.

Rob Baptiste on Saturday, Jan. 8th, 2011 at 5:11 PM
 

Okay... what picture?  Grrr.  Mr. Blair's Jan. 6th entry makes sense though if there needs to be a manageable numbers of games to prognosticate.

Rob Baptiste on Saturday, Jan. 8th, 2011 at 5:14 PM
 

Actually when in younger days I did the pools, I used to bet on my team (Hibs) losing if they came up against decent opposition.

It's called hedging your bets in that if the team wins on the day I can forego the pools money, whilst if they lose on the day I at least am part way towards a pools win.

True, a draw is plum in the middle - the point being some of us like to s-p-r-e-a-d our options and nothing wrong with that, eh?

David Blair on Saturday, Jan. 8th, 2011 at 8:38 PM
 

Any chance at looking at our own team prediction again for next season?

I finished only 4 points behind the eventual winner, but looking at my results - with only 5 wins in the season none of them fell on a prediction match so I get no points from my own team throughout the season. Next season I should do better as I'll be hoping to compete for promotion again, but it does seem like the system penalises managers of badly performing teams.

Roy Rolsten on Saturday, Apr. 9th, 2011 at 11:37 PM
 
 
 
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